Why have crime rates dropped so much in the U.S., yet we still don't feel safe?

Is normal life in America more dangerous than ever? That seems to be the feeling if you listen to most people, who feel that crime is growing, criminals are running rampant, and they’re less safe than ever. But, in fact, research points to the fact that quite the opposite is true, as we covered in part one of this blog.

So why do we still think our society is rife with crime?

According to a 2014 Gallup poll, a majority of Americans report thinking "there is more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago.” In fact, about 63 percent of Americans surveyed say that crime is up over just one year ago.

That pessimism that we live in a lawful and orderly society also mirrors a long-term trend, with Americans saying they feel crime is up nearly every year they're polled, despite crime actually falling by about 4% or more year-over-year recently.

In fact, except for a couple of anomalies, serious crime has dropped every year from 1994 through 2015. For instance, in 2013, the number of homicides in the U.S. fell to 14,196 for the year – down from a peak of 24,703 in 1991 despite the population increasingly significantly in that period! Overall, violent crimes including homicide, rape, aggravated assault, and robbery have fallen 38% between 1992 and 2011, and many of them even more since that year.

But for more than a decade now, that Gallup poll, as well as many others, report that Americans believe crime is up – and getting worse.

This revelation has completely shocked many experts, directly contradicting their prognostications.

"Recent declines in rates of violent crime in the United States caught many researchers and policymakers off guard," wrote criminology professor Gary LaFree in 1999. "These declines were perhaps more surprising in that they came on the heels of dire predictions about the rise of a generation of 'superpredators' who would soon unleash the full force of their destructive capacities on an already crime-weary nation."

No matter what metric you look at or which report you read, it's evident that crime rates have dropped significantly in the United States over the last thirty years. In fact, it's the one thing that experts can agree upon. However, what's bizarre is that from sociologists to law enforcement personnel, political theorists to renowned economists, no one can quite put their finger on WHY crime is down.

Perhaps the most comprehensive study of the decline of crime in U.S society comes from The Brennan Center, who recently issued a report examining multiple theories for why crime rates have fallen off a cliff in the U.S. since the early 1990s.

According to The Brennan Center’s study, here are some possible factors:

• An aging population commits less crime
The Baby Boomers are by far the largest generation in American history, with about 75 million citizens 65 years or older right now. One theory goes that as the Boomers matured and the averaged population gradually aged in the U.S., fewer crimes were committed (following research that most crimes are committed by younger people.)

• Decrease in alcohol consumption
Some political scientists point to the fact that alcohol consumption in the U.S. has declined since the early 1990s, albeit only slightly. But fewer people under the influence of alcohol equate to less bad decisions and criminal behavior, they argue.

• Economic prosperity drove crime down
The 1990s were the salad days for the U.S. economy, with low unemployment rates and higher incomes almost across the board. Some experts point out that with increased economic prosperity, it’s natural that there were fewer criminals that had to rob, steal, sell drugs, etc. to survive.

• A larger and more efficient police presence
In the 1990s, policing got a complete overhaul in many major cities. Thousands of new police officers were hired, training improved, and the force started integrating technology that allowed them to combat crime strategically and efficiently like never before.

• Higher incarceration rates
During the 1990s, and continuing today, the incarceration rate skyrocketed in the U.S., as we now lock up more of our citizens, both in real numbers and percentages, than any country in the world. Is a drop in the crime rate simply a factor of doing a goo job putting the bad guys behind bars?

• Taming of the 1980s crack epidemic
The introduction of the powerful and highly addictive new drug, crack, rocked major U.S. cities in the 1980s, virtually overnight. But one theory is that as the police, courts, treatment and addiction centers, etc. caught up with the crack cocaine epidemic, it was only logical that crime rates would fall.

• Prevalence of anti-depressants
In the 1980s and earlier, there was little or no diagnosis or treatment of depression, anxiety, ADD, and other conditions that could explain anti-social behavior like crime.

• Changes in lead poisoning
• Are you thinking of lead? The neurotoxic element stunts intellectual growth in children and causes behavioral problems when they become adults, but it wasn’t seen as a possible culprit for a nationwide crime wave until recently. In her 2007 paper on the relationship, economist Jessica Reyes attributed a 56 percent drop in violent crime in the 1990s to the removal of lead from gasoline after the Clean Air Act of 1970.

With children born after the early 1970s less affected by lead’s toxic effects, the logic goes, they would be less likely to commit crimes once they reached their 20s in the early 1990s. Mother Jones reporter Kevin Drum helped popularize the theory in his 2013 cover story. “In states where consumption of leaded gasoline declined slowly, crime declined slowly,” he wrote. “Where it declined quickly, crime declined quickly.” And, perhaps most intriguingly, the correlation held in other countries, too.

• Increases in technology, computers, and cell phones
Does our technology make it harder for criminals to operate, easier for us to protect ourselves and stay informed, and catch the bad guys?

So what's the right answer? 
The Brennan Center meticulously studied the possible influence of all of these theories. They found that most of them could only possibly account for only a marginal decrease in crime rates. In fact, their conclusion was that all of these factors together could only statistically justify maybe a one-third reduction in the crime rates we’ve seen.

However, another less-publicized theory could hold the secret to why we think crime is growing every year, despite the fact that it’s dropped significantly: media coverage.

Simply put, the more headlines about murders are splashed on newspapers, the more the nightly news leads with another shooting or a home invasion, and every time we see a mugging or assault in our social media newsfeed, the less safe we feel – despite evidence to the contrary. For instance, in 1991 when there were an all-time high 24,703 murders in New York City, for a homicide rate of 31 out of every 100,000 people, the New York Times mentioned "murder" or "homicide" only 129 times.

But in 2013, when the homicide rate was a much lower 4 people out of every 100,000, the New York Times mentioned “murder” or “homicide” 135 times!

That's just one prominent newspaper, and these days, news websites, news feeds, digital news in public places, TV news, and social media accounts are everywhere, telling us that we're not safe.

As a nation, we’re ingesting an exponentially higher number of messages about violent crime, and therefore, we think that reflects our reality.

The top 5 causes of accident, injury and death at home (and how to prevent them!)

No matter who we are, where we live, how much money we make or what our lifestyle looks like, we all have on priority: to keep our family safe. The moment an accident, robbery, natural disaster or any other harm threatens your a family member, everything else falls to a distant second on your list of priorities. Yet the unfortunately reality is that accidents and other bad things around the home happen every day, so it’s best to be prepared to handle any emergency – or even better, prevent them from happening.

Unintentional home injuries cause about 21 million visits to emergency rooms, hospitals and doctors every year, costing us $220 billion. In fact, more than 18,000 Americans die every year from in the home, which makes it the second most common location for such deaths.

Tragically, children often are the most at risk for injuries and accidents in the home. Every year, more than 3.4 million children suffer an unintentional injury, causing 2,300 childhood fatalities in those under 15 years of age.

The good news is that with some basic awareness, precautions and preparedness as a family, you can drastically reduce the instance and severity of an accident or injury at home, ensuring that your family and children are as safe as possible.

In this blog we’ll cover the top five causes of accidents, injuries and death around the home. In part two of this blog we’ll cover simple safety precautions and measures you can take to keep your family safe!

So what are the major and most common threats to your family around the home?

1. Falling

Slip-and-falls are a surprisingly prevalent cause of injury and death around the home. In fact, the Home Safety Council reveals that falling is the leading cause of unintentional home injury death, claiming about 6,000 lives per year.

Surprisingly, 50% of all accidental home deaths are due to falls, and most of them are from standing level – not off ladders, roofs or stairways.

Seniors and elderly family members are especially susceptible to falling, since 33% of people over the age of 65 will experience a fall every single year! Falling can often be seriously damaging for older people, often setting off a chain of medical problems that are hard to recover from. In fact, 50% of all elderly adults hospitalized for a fall will be unable to return to home after the injury.

2. Poisoning

You might be shocked to hear that poisoning is not far behind, taking nearly 5,000 lives each year, which makes it the second-most common cause of unnatural death around the house. The vast majority of these are caused by prescription and/or illegal drug overdose, or mixing different substances with alcohol and prescriptions that cause an adverse medical reaction. The U.S. poison control centers answer about 2.2 million calls for human poison exposure every year, or an average of once every 15 seconds. Studies show that children younger than 6 years comprise a huge portion of poisoning accident victims, with one and two-year olds in the most danger. 

3. Home fires

With all of our awareness, safety protocols, and modern technology, home fires are still a significant danger.  According to the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), firefighters still respond to about 374,000 residential fires every year in the U.S.  At that rate, we have a home fire every 10 seconds, and every 60 seconds a fire serious enough to call the fire department.  Even more sobering, every three hours, someone loses their life to a fire in their home, about 13,000 a year on average.

Here are some other statistics about home fires:

374,000     Average number of residential home fires each year. 

2,600         Average number of deaths each year from home fires.

12,975       Average number of injuries due to home fires each year.

$7.32 billion   Average annual dollar loss due to home fires.

The most common causes of home fires are:

56%      Cooking.

16%      Heating.

9%        Electrical malfunction.

8%        Other unintentional or careless (cigarettes are a major factor)

6%        Open flame.

5%        Intentional.

4. Airway obstruction

You might be shocked to hear that airway obstructions - such as choking, suffocation, and strangulation—cause about 1,000 deaths around the home every year. That makes airway obstructions the fourth-leading cause of accidental home injury death. Unfortunately, children are far more likely to be seriously hurt or even killed by these accidents – especially young children.

In fact, 88 percent of children who die from airway obstruction injuries were children ages 4 and under, and there are nearly 19,000 emergency room visits every year due to airway obstructions. The common causes of choking or airway obstruction include choking on food, choking on balloons they swallow or toys, strangulation by window blinds or cords or drawstrings from clothing.

It’s worth noting that many deaths that were first attributed to sudden infant death syndrome have now been reclassified as airway-obstruction fatalities.         

5. Drowning

Accidental drowning and other submersions in water are the fifth leading cause of injury around the house, accounting for about 800 deaths every year. In fact, drowning is the overall leading cause of death and injury in children ages 1-4! Of course if a homeowner owns a backyard pool or hot tub the possibility of drowning is exponentially higher, but children can drown or become injured in as little as two inches of water.

While swimming pools can offer countless hours of enjoyment and fun for the family, there is no denying that they should be treated with extreme caution when it comes to your children. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission reports that an average of 4,900 people receive emergency care for injuries suffered in a swimming pools or spas each year. According to the CDC, every year an average of 390 people die from drowning in a swimming pool.

Look for part two of this blog, where we’ll cover simple safety precautions and measures you can take to keep your family safe!

20 Tips for a safe Halloween.

Halloween is one of the favorite holidays for children, a time for them to dress up, go trick or treating, and enjoy all the spooky rituals on the last day of October. Every year, it seems Halloween becomes an even bigger holiday – among both children and adults – including Day of the Dead celebrations, mischief night October 30th, and school parties sometimes spanning the whole week. But while you focus on finding the perfect costume, decorating the house, and fill your candy bowl, it’s important to keep safety in mind.

In fact, only 1 out of 3 parents talk to their children about safety precautions before Halloween at all, though 3 out of 4 of them have serious concerns about their health and safety. On average, children are twice as likely to be hit by a car and killed on Halloween than any other day. 

So here are some great tips for children, parents, and folks in the community to share so we can keep our kids safe and happy this Halloween:

1. Don’t eat candy along the way.  Wait until they get home, so you can pour it out and have an adult sort through it, throwing out anything suspicious.  Some parents purchase their own assorted candy and give that to their kids, throwing out what was gathered from strangers. 

2. Don’t play in piles of leaves along the street.  This is important in places with large amounts of fall foliage, where the piles of leaves can get pretty high as people rake them onto the side of the street for pickup.  Children sometimes like jumping in these piles of leaves to play, but passing motorists can’t see them. 

3. Walk in groups and with supervising adults – don’t wander off.

4. Don’t go inside stranger’s houses and never accept a ride from a stranger.

5. Fasten some reflective tape to your children’s costumes so drivers can spot them at night.

6. Give them a good miniature flashlight they can strap around their wrist.

7. Have a pre-set route with designated street crossing points, “safe” houses of friends or family in case they need to use the bathroom or warm up, and a meeting point in case anyone gets separated.

8. Never eat candy that’s not packaged or wrapped.  Don’t eat apples, home made treats, or anything not still in its original seal.

9. Organize Halloween parties instead of trick or treating on neighborhood streets.

10. Make sure you child wears a costume that fits correctly so they can walk in it without tripping, their vision isn’t impaired, and the costume is flame resistant. 

11. Test any makeup or face paints on a small area of their skin first to make sure they don’t have an allergic reaction.

12. Use electric lights in Jack o’ lanterns and electric candles to avoid fire risks.

13. If a sword, stick, or cane is part of your child’s costume, make sure it is made of shatter proof plastic with no sharp tips or edges.

14. Do not use decorative contact lenses without checking with an eye care professional first.  Many of the lenses that say: “One size fits all,” or claim to be safe can actually cause scratching, infections, or injuries to children.

15. Don’t let kids carve pumpkins with knives.  Allow your children to draw creative faces on the pumpkin with a magic marker, and then let the adults do the actual carving.

16. Make sure your outdoor lights work, and your walkway, front steps, and porch are unobstructed and not slippery.

17. If you are going to be answering the door for Trick or Treaters, put your dog in a side room so they won’t be tempted to rush at visitors or try and run outside.

18. Give your kids a safety whistle and write their name, phone number, address, emergency contact numbers, etc. on an index card and have them carry it in their pocket.

19. Let them go out early, starting in the late afternoon, so they’ll be walking around when it’s mostly light out.

20. Consider letting your child carry a cell phone for emergency use, with 911 and your home phone number preset.

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