How will the FED rate hike affect the real estate and mortgage markets? Will housing slow down because of a slight bump in the FED, or will it continue its steady appreciation based on strong demand and emboldened consumer confidence? We collected the personal thoughts and opinions form ten noted financial and housing experts:
1. Nela Richardson, chief economist for national real estate
brokerage Redfin:
"Buyers now don't seem to be all that spurred or driven
by a rate increase. That lack of urgency will translate into next year's
housing market. There's interest, but there's not a lot of inventory to
buy."
2. Ralph McLaughlin, housing economist at Trulia:
“When rates do increase, it could be as little as a quarter
percent. I don’t expect that to have a big impact on the market, but it could
temper home price growth, which is good news for prospective homebuyers.
Interest rates won't have much of an effect on the 'rent versus buy' math.
Buying would still be cheaper than renting in most metros around the
country."
3. Selma Hepp, chief economist for Trulia:
“If the Feds decide to increase the rate at their meeting
tomorrow, any increases in rates will be nominal and gradual. Impact on homebuyers
will be minimal. For example, an increase of 25 basis points on a mortgage loan
of $250,000, raises the mortgage payment by $35. I don’t think that will turn
people off from buying a home, but they may end up looking to buy a slightly
less expensive home.”
“I think the strong economic fundamentals, including robust
job growth, better-paying jobs, rising wages and strong consumer demand will,
in fact, increase demand for homes. Long term, interest rates may slow home
price appreciation but I don’t think it will have a notable impact on home
sales.”
4. Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American
Financial:
“Of course, we cannot be sure exactly how mortgage rates and
the housing market will respond to a Fed rate increase. But, we can say with some certainty that the
Fed will eventually raise rates. When it does, the housing market isn’t doomed
to fail, but rather adjust to the reality of interest rates that are reflective
of a strengthening economy and certainly more traditional financial conditions.
A stronger economy, more or better jobs, rising wages, increased
confidence—these factors all increase demand for housing. In other words,
rising rates are indicative of increased home sales and upward pressure on prices.”
5. Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Realtor.com:
“The Fed decision is symbol over substance as far as
immediate direct impact to mortgage rates go. Their move will impact the
consumer and the broader perception and expectations for rates given how much
attention is paid to the Fed and this particular decision.”
“In aggregate I think the near-term impact is negligible if
not positive. The 30-year rate already varied by 50 basis points from its low
in January to its high in June, and since then we’ve floated back down 20 basis
points. No one is expecting rates to move substantially in the months ahead
given global economic weakness. We’re
likely to see about 50 basis points of increase over the next 12 months. The historical perspective shows that even at
50 basis points higher than today, mortgage rates are incredibly low. Couple that with improving household finances
and incomes—especially in the segments who are driving home sales this
year—slightly higher rates won’t put a damper on the increased demand we’ve
seen this year. We’re months if not years away from the type of high rates that
would pose substantial risk to home sales, especially since what’s driving the
gradual movement to higher rates is a much healthier economy producing consistent
solid gains in employment and household formations.”
6. Svenja Gudell, chief economist for Zillow :
“I don’t think it’s going to have a big impact. It will have
a small impact in markets like San Francisco where housing is expensive. It
will hit markets where there is very little wiggle room, more than a market
like Cleveland or a metro area where home values aren’t so high. It’s not going
to be a showstopper. The Fed is not interested in rocking the system; it will
be a fairly smooth ramp up.”
7. Lynn Fisher, vice president of research and economics
with the Mortgage Bankers Association:
“We think that the fact that they’re ready is a reflection
of an improving domestic economy. The jobless rate is at a 7-year low and wage
growth is starting to heat up. Both will buoy demand.”
8. Steve East, chief economist and market strategist for
Height Securities:
“It’s more clear that the Fed is going to raise rates than
that the long end is going to go up because presumably some rate hike cycle is
priced in. Even if the Fed’s actions do hit the mortgage market, I don’t think
a 25 basis point increase in mortgage rates is going to make a difference in
demand.”
9. David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset
Management:
"Aspiring homeowners have to meet three criteria to
qualify for a mortgage: sufficient savings for a down payment, an acceptable
credit score, and proof that they can make their monthly payments. That final
component is the most susceptible to rise along with interest rates, but is
also by far the easiest of those hurdles to surmount.”
10. Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank:
"Debt service is not the problem for people who want to
take out a mortgage. Lower rates and a flatter curve aren't going to help the
housing market too much if you can't get a mortgage because standards are still
too tight. How good can the economy be if rates are still at zero?""
"When the Federal Reserve raises rates from low levels
it is generally taken as a sign of economic confidence—that the economy no
longer needs the Fed’s help—and that rising confidence is generally
positive...”
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