Sunday, November 8, 2015

15 Crazy (And Surprisingly Accurate) Predictors of The Next U.S. President. (Part 2)

Who will be elected the next U.S. President? In part one of this blog, we outlined the first seven highly unconventional methods of predicting who will be the 44th Commander in Chief of these United States. Here are the next eight:

8. The Redskins Rule:
Apparently, the football team in the nation’s capital is a precise predictor of U.S. presidents. If the Redskins win their last home game of the season before Election Day, then the incumbent party will win. Incredibly, it’s worked for every single election since 1940, with only one exception.

In 2004, the Packers beat the Redskins in the final home game before the election, but President George W. Bush won and retained his presidency, but remember that he’d actually lost the popular vote in 2000, when a Supreme Court ruling over a Florida recount awarded him the Presidency. So if we look at the popular vote, not just who wins, then the Redskin Rule holds up a perfect 18-0.

Accuracy: Solid as oak
Prediction: The Redskins are pretty bad, so a Republican will probably win

9. The 7-Eleven Cup Rule:
7-Eleven, the popular convenience store, offers custom coffee cups every election season, allowing customers to choose a cup from the party they want to see in office. In the last four elections, the presidential candidate who was chosen most on a 7-Eleven cup, won.

Accuracy: As consistent as morning coffee
Prediction: TBD

10. The World Series Rule:
This one is pretty simply – if the American League wins baseball’s World Series, a Republican will win that year’s Presidential election, But if a National League team hoists the World Series banner, the Democrats are in for a victory.

Accuracy: The best analytic since “Sabermetrics”
Prediction: Who will win in 2016? The American League Royals won in 2015, but the NL’s Dodgers, Cubs, or Mets have the best odds of winning in 2016, according to Vegas predictions. If that’s the case, then our next President will be a Democrat.

11. The vote in Vigo County Rule:
Since 1956, the way that little Vigo County, Indiana votes has predicted the U.S. presidential election every time. In fact, their results are surprisingly accurate – within 3% of the popular vote – and the trend of Vigo as a prognosticator goes all the way back to 1892 with only two exceptions.

Accuracy: Bet the farm on it
Prediction: TBD!

12. The Candidate Height Rule:
This is amazing (and scary!): since 1900, the taller Presidential candidate has won every election with only eight exceptions. Most recently, the 6’1” Obama beat John McCain (5’6”) in 2008 but also beat a taller Mitt Romney (6’2”) in 2012, leading us to wonder if Romney wears 1”+ lifts in his black wingtips? .

Accuracy: Meh
Prediction: Donald Trump is 6’2” and Hillary Clinton is not

13. The Last Name Rule:
If we go back to 1900, the Presidential candidate with the most letters in his last name has won 16 times and lost only 8.

Accuracy: Sports betters and gamblers wish they had a two-thirds success rate
Prediction: For the Republicans, Trump (5), Bush (4), and Paul (4) aren’t looking good, but Huckabee (8) and Santorum (8) have a good shot to beat Clinton (7) or Sanders (7)

14. The Summer Olympics Rule:
Just like U.S. Presidential elections, the Summer Olympics happen every four years – but is there a correlation? In fact, in the last 13 out of 14 Summer Olympics, a precedent has been set that predicts our next President. If the host country has previously hosted a Summer Olympics, the incumbent party has won the election. Only Japan’s hosting of the 1964 Summer Olympics bucks this rule…BUT…Japan had been awarded the 1940 Summer Olympics but they were cancelled because of WWII, so it can be almost justified as 14 out of 14 wins

Accuracy: 95%
Prediction: The Summer Olympics are being hosted in Brazil in 2016 for the first time…which means a Republican is sure to win.

15. The First Lady Cookie Recipe Rule:
Finally, we’re getting down to some really scientific methods of predicting the next U.S. President with…cookie recipes? The popular home magazine “Family Circle” has published a favorite cookie recipe from each of the Presidential candidate’s wives since 1992, with readers voting for their favorite tasty treat. So far, Hillary Clinton over Barbara Bush and Elizabeth Dole, Laura Bush over Tipper Gore and Teresa Heinz Kerry, and Michelle Obama over Cindy McCain and Ann Romney have held up flawlessly,

Accuracy: 100%
Prediction: Bill Clinton can’t bake (pun very much intended), so we’ll say that the wife of a Republican will have a better recipe – and become the First Lady.

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